You should be shocked that I’m saying this. As a psychologist, I know better than to participate in confirmation bias (only paying attention to details that confirm a hypothesis). As a statistician, I should recognize that crap happens, and sometimes simultaneously. But this??
So my youngest boy is up all night vomiting (probability ~ 1/500). My wife has already signed up to chaperone a field-trip (p ~ 2/365). I’ve got a paper draft due to the boss today (p ~ 1/30). AND the internet stops working. Seriously!?!?!?! (p ~ 1/100…stupid COX). So as I’m bathing a vomit-covered toddler, the stench is making me gag, and I’ve gotta get the other kiddos ready for their fieldtrip while the misses fetches pedialyte popsicles from the store, and fix the internet, and clean up the mess before the entire household starts barfing.
And then my carpet vacuum stops working (p~1/1095). So now the stench will linger until Amazon can deliver a new one.
So let’s compute the probabilities, shall we?
p(not murphy) = 1/500 x 2/365 x 1/30 x 1/100 = 3.65e-09
For the mathematically disinclined, that’s a 3 preceded by nine zeroes!
Yup, Murphy wins this one.
So here’s the email I sent to my boss:
So my wife is scheduled to go with the kids on a field trip. Last night my youngest started vomiting. So while the misses is fieldtripping, I’m home with the barf faucet. Between potent splatters, I’m working on getting the paper draft to you. THEN THE INTERNET GOES OUT!!!! Seriously??? I need a new modem (apparently) for the third time in as many years (stupid cox) and that won’t happen til tomorrow.
So, until the misses gets home with the non-barfers, I’m staying connected via cellular. (And typing typos with my fat thumbs). When they get back, I’ll find me a McDonald’s or a Starbucks to get that draft to you. Does that work?
Okay. Rant over 🙂
Ps–my shampoo vac also gave up the ghost this morning, so my house will smell like this until Cox’s competitors come (att) so I can get internet so I can research vacuums so I can clean up the stench.
PPS–now my rant is over. 🙂
And to top it off, I now have a cold. Blah.